The peak in fossil fuel demand will have a dramatic impact on financial markets in the 2020s. This is one of the major reasons we will see a societal collapse in the 2020s. The transition to renewable energy sources is a minefield of risks, dislocations, and oscillations for investors and nation states.
The global energy system is transitioning from a system mainly based on fossil fuels to one mainly based on renewable energy sources. The shift will involve near-term peaking of fossil fuel demand, an S curve of renewable growth, and the endgame for fossil fuel demand.
The amounts at risk are colossal –
Investors face three types of risk from the energy transition – systemic, country, and stock specific. The systemic risk to investors comes from the fact that the fossil fuel sector has $25 trillion of fixed assets which is increasingly vulnerable to stranding as the energy transition progresses.
Read full report HERE. View video interview below.
Kingsmill has worked as a sell-side City equity analyst and strategist for over 20 years, including for Deutsche Bank, Troika Dialog and Citibank in London, Hong Kong and Moscow. He has written strategy on emerging markets and global themes, including the wider significance of the shale revolution. He worked for many years in Russia, which is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, and deeply impacted by the transition.
Kingsmill has an MA in History from Cambridge University, trained as an accountant (CIMA), and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA).